Olympic Qualification Update

Olympic qualification will soon be wrapping up, with the last world cup for Women’s Sabre in Belgium this week and for the Men next week in Hungary.

An explication of the qualification process and the rankings can be found here:

https://fencingparis2024.com

By now most places are pretty much decided but here is a little look at what is still in play:

WOMEN’S Sabre

For a team to qualify they must be ranked at least 16th. Even if they are the highest ranked in their zone. Currently is the highest ranked African team, with Egypt too far behind to catch up. However if they drop two places from their current ranking of 15th then they will lose their place and there will be the opportunity to the highest ranked unqualified team to take it.

Algeria currently have 134 points. They are guaranteed at least 8 points which is what they scored at 3 of the 4 last world cups so they will most likely end on a score of 142.

In order for them to drop down to 17th they must be overtaken by two of the following:

Hong Kong-

Currently on 123 points. Assuming Algeria lose in the 32 as they usually do, Hong Kong would need to finish ranked 14th of higher. Hong Kong have achieved this in 3 of the last 4 world cups so this seems quite likely, although most recently in Athens they lost in the L32 so not guaranteed.

Mexico-

Currently on 121 points. Again assuming that Algeria lose in the L32 then they would need to finish 12th or higher. Mexico have performed well in the last two world cups finishing 15th in Athens and 8th in Lima so this is also very possible.

Turkey-

Currently on 100 points. For them to overtake Algeria they would need to make the final. On paper this is very unlikely, but given Unludag and Erbil have had some decent individual performances this season, it isn’t impossible.

If Algeria do in fact drop below 16th then currently that place would go to Bulgaria who are currently ranked 7th with 212 points.

As is usually the case, competition for the European countries is very tough. As it stands Italy will take the European zonal spot. They are ranked 6th with 250 points, 38 points ahead of Bulgaria. For Bulgaria to overtake Italy they would need to win and Italy would need to finish 9th or lower.

However even with Algeria outside of the top 16, Bulgaria will have competition for the extra spot. Spain are only 15 points behind and Azerbaijan 18, giving these two countries an outside chance of qualifying.

Japan currently have the Asian Zonal spot, ranked 8th with 206 points. China are 31 points behind with 175. There are two ways China could overtake Japan:

China win and Japan finish 5th or lower

China finish 2nd and Japan finish 14th or lower.

I can’t see China making a final on current form so Japan seem pretty safe.

Another possibility to consider is that USA (currently 5th with 258 points) overtake Ukraine (4th, 281 points). One of the following situations would need to happen:

USA win and Ukraine finish 3rd or lower

USA 2nd and Ukraine finish 7th or lower

USA 3rd and Ukraine finish 17th or lower

If this did happen then the USA would trade their zonal spot for a top 4 spot and in doing so freeing up the Pan-American spot for Mexico (providing they move up to top 16 in the rankings).

This could also knock Italy out of the European zonal spot as Ukraine would now also be competing for it.

WOMEN’S INDIVIDUAL

This is where we see one of the biggest flaws in the qualification process. If a nation doesn’t qualify a team then they can only send one fencer. This means that only one of the Greek stars will be able to qualify. Currently Gkountoura is ahead in 4th with 174 points and Georgiadou behind in 6th, trailing by 26 points. For Georgiadou to overtake she would have to win and Gkountoura would have to lose in the L32. It

The other European spot is held by Martin-Portugues. Ilieva is 43 points behind so unless Bulgaria manage to qualify in the team event she will not go to Paris.

For the Asian Zonal spots we see another battle between teamates, this time with Yang and Shao of China. Currently Yang is 12 points ahead with 99 points. Shao made the final at this event last year so she maybe has a chance.

The second Asian spot is guaranteed for Dayibekova (UZB)

The African spot is currently held by Hafez (EGY) but if Algeria drop out of the top 16 in team then Boudiaf will almost certainly take it as she is 23 points ahead.

The Panam spot is pretty much guaranteed for Brind’Amour

MEN’S TEAM

Germany would have to gain 35 points on Italy in order to take the European spot. Basically they have to win, and Italy finish 8th or lower. Possible but very unlikely.

The other “battle” is for the Asian zone. Currently Iran clinch it with 217 points. Japan are 24 points behind with 193. Even if Iran have a bad day Japan would probably still need to win Gold to overtake them.

Egypt and Canada are quranteed their zonal places

MEN’S INDIVIDUAL

The European spots are guaranteed for Bazadze and Szabo. However it is worth remembering the zonal qualification tournament will give one extra chance to those who haven’t qualified yet. The poles, Hryciuk (53 points) and Kaczkowski (40.5 points) will be competing against each other to secure their selection for this event.

Fares Ferjani (TUN) is guaranteed the African spot. Since Egypt will qualify as a team this will leave very little competition for Girault (NIG) at the African Zonal tournament, so he seems likely to qualify too.

The main competition will be for the second Asian Spot. Yoshida (81 points) is way ahead with the first and Alshamlan currently has the second with 47 points. Behind are Aymuratov (UZB) and LOW (HGK) both with 40.5 points. In the running there could also be Ho (HKG, 38.5), Liang (CHN,30) and Shen (CHN, 29.5)

I would say any of the above are capable of making the L16 (in doing so winning 8 ranking points). But they would need Alshamlan to be knocked out on the first day which we all know will be highly unlikely.

Canada qualifying as a team gives more opportunity in the panamerican zone. Currently Di Tella (ARG) takes it with 43.5 points. The Venezuelans, Quintero (41.375) and Romero (35.375 points), are unlikely to overtake him but will be competing against each other for the chance to compete at the Zonal Qualifying tournament.

Maybe I’ve gotten the odd calculation wrong so don’t trust everything here exactly, but hope this gives a general idea of what to watch for.